The Business Cycle Implications of Reciprocity in Labor Relations

We develop a reciprocity-based model of wage determination and incorporate it into a moder dynamic general equilibrium framework. We estimate the model and find that, among potential determinants of wage policy, rent-sharing (between workers and firms) and a measure of wage entitlement are critical to fit the dynamic responses of hours, wages and inflation to various exogenous shocks. Aggregate employment conditions (measuring workers' outside option), on the other hand, are found to play only a negligible role in wage setting. These results are broadly consistent with micro-studies on reciprocity in labor relations but contrast with traditional efficiency wage models which emphasize aggregate labor market variables as the main determinant of wage setting. Overall, the empirical fit of the estimated model is at least as good as the fit of models postulating nominal wage contracts. In particular, the reciprocity model is more successful in generating the sharp and significant fall of inflation and nominal wage growth in response to a neutral technology shock.Efficiency wages, Reciprocity, Estimated DSGE models

Equity Returns and Integration: Is Europe Changing?

This paper analyses the consequences of the process of financial and economic integration on European equity markets. It documents significant changes in fundamentals, notably an increased synchronisation of macroeconomic activities, and a non-negligible evolution in pricing, with a decrease in the cost of capital and converging equity premia. As to equity returns themselves, in the face of what could turn out to be long run upward trends in the correlations among both country and sector returns and a narrowing of the superiority of country factors, the stakes of searching for diversification opportunities at a higher level of disaggregation appear to be higher than ever.European integration; Equity markets; Diversification

Portfolio Diversification: Alive and Well in Euroland!

Diversification opportunities in Euroland appear to have improved significantly since the advent of the euro, thus invalidating the prospects identified in the last years of the convergence-to-EMU period. We identify low frequency movements in the time series of return dispersions suggestive of cycles and long swings in return correlations. The most recent post-euro period is clearly associated with an important upswing with return dispersions exceeding for the first time their peaks of the early nineties.portfolio diversification; return dispersion; euro

Fair Wages in a New Keynesian Model of the Business Cycle

We build a New Keynesian model of the business cycle with sticky prices and real wage rigidities motivated by efficiency wages of the gift exchange variety. Compared to a standard sticky price model, our Fair Wage model provides an explanation for structural unemployment and generates more plausible labor market dynamics - notably accounting for the low correlation between wages and employment. The fair wage induced real wage rigidity also significantly reduces the elasticity of marginal cost with respect to output. The smoother dynamics of real marginal cost increase both amplification and persistence of output responses to monetary shocks, thus remedying the well-known lack of internal propagation of standard sticky price models. We take these improvements as a strong endorsement of the addition of real wage rigidities to nominal price rigidities and conclude that the fair wage extension of this paper constitutes a promising platform for an enriched New Keynesian synthesis.Efficiency wages, business cycles, sticky prices, persistence

The Business Cycle Implications of Reciprocity in Labor Relations

We develop a reciprocity-based model of wage determination and incorporate it into a modern dynamic general equilibrium framework. We estimate the model and find that, among potential determinants of wages, rent-sharing (between workers and firms) and wage entitlement (based on wages earned in the past) are important to fit the dynamic responses of output, wages and inflation to various exogenous shocks. Aggregate employment conditions (measuring workers' outside option), on the other hand, are found to play only a negligible role for wage setting. These results are broadly consistent with micro-studies on reciprocity in labor relations but contrast with traditional efficiency wage models which emphasize aggregate labor market variables as the main determinant of wage setting.Efficiency Wages, Reciprocity, Estimated DSGE Models

European Financial Integration and Equity Returns: A Theory-Based Assessment

This paper reassesses, at the light of economic and financial theory, the well-documented recent evolution of the euro area public debt and equity markets. Doing so leads to associating the EMU and the single market with the changes in fundamentals and financial integration with convergence in pricing. For the public debt market, we stress the observation, conform with predictions, that risk free interest rates are now less volatile in the euro area. But also the fact that the establishment of a single public debt market is still not completed. The current fragmentation is costly to Treasuries and taxpayers and understanding its cause is important to evaluate the prospects of currently considered measures of financial integration.European financial integration, country and sector effects, asset allocation

Intangible Capital, Corporate Valuation and Asset Pricing

Recent studies have found unmeasured intangible capital to be large and important. In this paper we observe that by nature intangible capital is also very different from physical capital. We find it plausible to argue that the accumulation process for intangible capital differs significantly from the process by which physical capital accumulates. We study the implications of this hypothesis for rational firm valuation and asset pricing using a two-sector general equilibrium model. Our main finding is that the properties of firm valuation and stock prices are very dependent on the assumed accumulation process for intangible capital. If one entertains the possibility that intangible investments translates into capital stochastically, we find that plausible levels of macroeconomic volatility are compatible with highly variable corporate valuations, P/E ratios and stock returns.intangible capital; corporate valuation; stock return volatility

The Business Cycle Implications of Reciprocity in Labor Relations

We develop a reciprocity-based model of wage determination and incorporate it into a modern dynamic general equilibrium framework. We estimate the model and find that, among potential determinants of wage policy, rent-sharing (between workers and firms) and a measure of wage entitlement are critical to fit the dynamic responses of hours, wages and inflation to various exogenous shocks. Aggregate employment conditions (measuring workers' outside option), on the other hand, are found to play only a negligible role in wage setting. These results are broadly consistent with micro-studies on reciprocity in labor relations but contrast with traditional efficiency wage models which emphasize aggregate labor market variables as the main determinant of wage setting. Overall, the empirical fit of the estimated model is at least as good as the fit of models postulating nominal wage contracts. In particular, the reciprocity model is more successful in generating the sharp and significant fall of inflation and nominal wage growth in response to a neutral technology shock.efficiency wages; reciprocity; estimated DSGE models

Efficiency Wages Revisited: The Internal Reference Perspective (new version)

The missing wage rigidity in general equilibrium models of effciency wages is an artifact of the external wage reference perspective conventionally adopted by the literature. Effciency wage models based on an internal perspective, in which the wage reference is made dependent on the firm's ability to pay, are capable of generating strong wage rigidity. This paper makes the point in the context of the gift-exchange framework originally proposed by Akerlof [1982].efficiency wages; wage rigidity; rent-sharing

The Macroeconomic Consequences of Reciprocity in Labor Relations

We develop and analyze a structural model of effciency wages founded on reciprocity. Workers are assumed to face an explicit trade-off between the disutility of providing effort and the psychological benefit of reciprocating the gift of a wage offer above some reference level. The model provides a rationale for rent sharing - a feature that is very much present in the data but absent from previous formulations of the effciency wage hypothesis. This firm-internal perspective on effciency wages has important macroeconomic consequences: rent-sharing considerations promote wage rigidity, internal amplification and asymmetric responses to technology and demand shocks.reciprocity; rent-sharing; effciency wages; wage rigidity